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Tools for Predicting Usage and Benefits of Urban Bicycle Network Improvements

This report gives a brief overview of four related small research projects. The four projects were related by the theme of bicycling preferences and behavior with regard to bicycling facilities. The studies were also connected by the fact that they were all based on information from the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota. The amount of cycling, and the size and type of benefits gained from it, should depend on a number of factors including the quality of the cycling environment in an area. The amount of cycling will depend (among other things) on demographics, the presence of significant cycling destinations, and on facilities. Benefits will depend on factors such as the purpose and location of the trips, their number and duration, and who is making them. The critical question for planning purposes is how the cycling environment, as opposed to uncontrollable factors such as demographics, influences demand and the resulting benefits.

This project was part of a larger body of bicycling-related research that is ongoing at the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota. This research has been funded by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT), the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), and a variety of other sources. Because of the very broad nature of this research program, there was no single question guiding the research that is reported here. Rather, the project essentially consisted of four essentially independent research questions, under a broad unifying theme. This theme was bicycling preferences and behavior with regard to bicycling facilities. The studies were also connected by the fact that they were all based on information from the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota.

The theme of bicycling preferences and behavior with regard to bicycling facilities could be understood as an attempt to develop answers to the following three questions:
1) In what way and to what extent does cycling demand depend on the environment?
2) How does the environment, through its influence on demand, impact the size and types of benefits gained from cycling?
3) How would specific changes to the environment be expected to change the amount of cycling and the benefits gained?

In addition to working toward finding answers to these questions, another major focus of this project was developing research methodologies by which the questions could be addressed rigorously. We hope that this will inspire other researchers to use these or similar methodologies to study other places; a robust understanding of how facilities affect bicycling behavior must rest on evidence from more than one location.

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