This USDOT report suggests that the U.S. has reached a point whereby mobility trends, socio-demographic conditions and travel behavior will result in reduced annual "vehicle miles of travel" (VMT) growth. This report explores the major factors that influence travel behavior. The indirect factors are discussed first using primarily empirical data. These are divided into three major categories: socio-economic conditions, land use conditions, and transportation system conditions. This report concentrates most on the role of the socio-economic conditions and travel behavior followed by a discussion of the direct factors. Several of these factors appear to be undergoing historic trend reversals. In addition, new evidence suggests that congestion levels have reached the point where average travel speeds are declining. This declining speed may provide additional dampening of VMT growth.

External Links:

More Information: www.cutr.usf.edu/pdf/The%20Case%20for%20Moderate%20Growth%20in%20VMT-%202006%20Final.pdf

Further Reading:

The Case for Moderate Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel: A Critical Juncture in U.S. Travel Behavior Trends